tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27090855907047231192024-03-21T18:42:14.523-04:00Kinetik SportsCovering the game within the game. Free Picks, Sports betting, handicapping, predictions, trends, and commentary.Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-39977203862762479622012-08-19T05:45:00.000-04:002013-11-29T10:38:23.609-05:00The Market vs. The Arena<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK23TheuXkxOC2Ly_FD-t_6o8DA1J9y8bQiYShtKU1OSVLnRkAnp-xipku2PsoBVvTr3Moo2kV5cUQCH7FSsfPZ7iWRvRQqPwsUxDxLIUfKhnluTH9EC7MI-N2APZFnJZaf-yfiThyphenhyphen3tM/s1600-h/tradingplaces.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5369127760442758674" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK23TheuXkxOC2Ly_FD-t_6o8DA1J9y8bQiYShtKU1OSVLnRkAnp-xipku2PsoBVvTr3Moo2kV5cUQCH7FSsfPZ7iWRvRQqPwsUxDxLIUfKhnluTH9EC7MI-N2APZFnJZaf-yfiThyphenhyphen3tM/s320/tradingplaces.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 183px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 320px;" /></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You would have to be dead, literally dead, not to have heard about the so-called “Stock Market Bailout.” With that in mind, I have a question, <b>Still think Stock Market Investing isn't gambling? </b>I’m always quick to point that out to friends and family members who look down their noses when they find out that I “gamble" on sports. I explain that they gamble just as much because they all have money in the stock market in some shape or form. Stock certificate, mutual funds, 401-Ks, and even bonds are gambles. My opponents counter by saying, "No, those are investments."<span style="color: #212121;"><span style="line-height: 15px;"> In the spirit of a true smart-ass I use their words against them.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> I explain that I don’t “gamble" on sports but rather I “invest" in winning teams. To be fair, I have money in the market as well. I’ve read Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Robert Kiyosaki and the like, and one thing I’ve learned is that regardless of “what the market is doing” there is always money to be made. Even in today’s economic times, there’s still money to be made. You say, “Fab, all of Wall Street is doing bad now, what are you saying?” I say, NOPE! You know who’s doing well right now, and rightfully so? <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Campbell</st1:place></st1:city>’s as in the soup company. As a matter of fact, all producers of canned goods are doing well. In the midst of last week’s 2 historic crashes, when the dust settled <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Campbell</st1:place></st1:city>’s was the only BIG winner left standing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When this logic fails them, I simply point out the definition of both words which are damn near identical.</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>in·vest</b></span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> - </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To devote (one's time, effort, or money) to a particular undertaking with the expectation of a worthwhile result.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>gam·ble</b> - </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">an enterprise attempted with a risk of loss and a chance of profit or success.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So when you go to your book to put down those hard earned dimes, think of your wagers as investments. Let’s be honest, if the Detroit Lions or the Oakland Raiders were being traded on the market, other than being a die hard fan, would you ever “invest” in either of those “companies.” I know I wouldn’t. This is just one of the many keys to becoming a Man Crippler.</span><br />
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Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-36322348666975859832012-08-18T22:33:00.000-04:002013-11-29T10:37:41.534-05:00Contrarian Sports Betting (or Value Investing)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR887YI6Rb5gYajyyJz_cTRX0Sh0ANqHl7MZA3jwg5pTuBnOmW_HvazCgsDBMww7LM-wc05OKpWzsL1AqUhQSlozBEzUSXxzY8jI7NkUQnx0s6oLjycViIqnOkvHFByNqTS1xNdOWC3hU/s1600/valueinvest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR887YI6Rb5gYajyyJz_cTRX0Sh0ANqHl7MZA3jwg5pTuBnOmW_HvazCgsDBMww7LM-wc05OKpWzsL1AqUhQSlozBEzUSXxzY8jI7NkUQnx0s6oLjycViIqnOkvHFByNqTS1xNdOWC3hU/s1600/valueinvest.jpg" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">There is a price to pay for everything. Sexy investments are fun to own but are rarely profitable. I like boring (un-sexy) investments. I bet on teams that put fans to sleep. I bet on teams that look like sure losers. I bet on teams that no crowd would ever unanimously agree to wager their money on. I bet mostly on "ugly" underdogs and the result is I get great odds just about every time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">With this strategy, I win consistently from week to week. Not 100%, not 80%, not even 70% (although for short periods of time I catch fire and hit streaks of high winning percentages like that -- see my recent picks at <a href="http://kinetiksports.wordpress.com/ats-records/">http://kinetiksports.wordpress.com/ats-records/</a>). But all you need to have to win money betting on sports is a small edge. 53% makes you money. 55% makes you very successful. 58% makes you wealthy. Hit 58% consistently day in and day out and you will die a very happy man or woman!<br /><br />Value investing is simply investing contrary to the popular opinion of the day (doing the opposite of what seems obvious, being illogical instead of logical, running away from the crowds). Crowds are losers! The masses are always going to the slaughter. They love to invest or bet on what's sexy and appealing. Crowds love sure things. We all know there are no sure things. Only Contrarian sports bettors, otherwise known as value investors, can achieve an edge on the bookmaker.<br /><br />Caveat Emptor,<br />JoVerto</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdu-qt4l7BCo-ZLvz9O9B1LSvHLloZjZLPakjgtoIUHOTNIUKugxbuC3DHDNBdoXLkghmcohXlKGwLzVUNuz8_fiqfm_gXTnNKukYcUmv2zOyyREaiRF2kBlAViyhH8TvjJoU6fIlZVLY/s1600/valueinvest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdu-qt4l7BCo-ZLvz9O9B1LSvHLloZjZLPakjgtoIUHOTNIUKugxbuC3DHDNBdoXLkghmcohXlKGwLzVUNuz8_fiqfm_gXTnNKukYcUmv2zOyyREaiRF2kBlAViyhH8TvjJoU6fIlZVLY/s1600/valueinvest.jpg" /></a></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-79744526547778979002012-08-17T06:00:00.000-04:002013-11-29T10:36:00.833-05:00Get Your Money When You Bet Your Money<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFCQCTjyETmWh4OSdh6HhOEshvsQRyFAhznB11oVrf3OthshVhMV-bfyPUVaColg08bY3om6jlts7BP4o4h7FM4kg235Jb2kzqB8VNK_mJa_3qxkQ4RvCwnPzbMholiYD0pg1NrAUhq7g/s1600-h/cash05.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5369125015567242290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFCQCTjyETmWh4OSdh6HhOEshvsQRyFAhznB11oVrf3OthshVhMV-bfyPUVaColg08bY3om6jlts7BP4o4h7FM4kg235Jb2kzqB8VNK_mJa_3qxkQ4RvCwnPzbMholiYD0pg1NrAUhq7g/s320/cash05.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 123px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 123px;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Is there anything worse than missing one game on a 7-team parlay with $100 riding on it at about 92 to 1 odds?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">As a matter of fact there is.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Nothing could be worse than being one field goal, one free throw, or one goal from over $9000!</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Well imagine this… let’s imagine that because you were sipping your favorite cocktail at the time, you put down $200 instead of the intended $100.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Nervously you finish-off several other cocktails after you realize that you just put a serious dent in your bankroll.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">You curse yourself until you realize that the first 6 contests have covered and low and behold the 7<sup>th</sup> comes through on the last play of the game!</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Are you kidding me?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">18 GRAND!</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">You log on to your book to ensure you’re not dreaming.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">After hitting the refresh button repeatedly you see the words, “BALANCE:</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">$18,827”.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">You can’t believe it!</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Your very next thought is, “GIVE ME THAT….NOW!”</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">You call up your book and...</span> <br />
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<span style="font-size: 130%;"></span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Do you know how to get paid by your book?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Do you trust your book to pay you if you do indeed, “Break their backs” one Saturday or Sunday afternoon?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Which books have a bad reputation when it comes to pay out and is your book one of them?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Can you withdraw your entire balance at once?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">How long will it take to receive my loot after requested?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">What do independent sources say about the books that I do business with? These are all questions that any “dime-getter” should be able to answer without equivocation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"></span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"><a href="http://www.sbrforum.com/">SBRForum.com</a>, we find, is a great resource to inspect the literally HUNDREDS of sportsbooks out there vying for your business.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">They have a <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Reviews/default.aspx">Sportsbook Review</a> section that is unrivaled. Most so-called reviewers of sportsbooks, are very cursory in their critiques. SBR's reviews are complete with results of physical site visits including pictures of actual office spaces. They even provide a BLACK LIST of sportsbooks that you should absolutely stay away from.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">In addition, members of the forum provide continuous feedback on their experiences with their books. The result is a comprehensive volume of information to help you choose the right book(s) for you. To make it even easier, they provide a <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Match+your+profile+to+the+best+sportsbook/default.aspx">Sportsbook Selector</a> which suggests the books you may be interested in based on your answer to some basic questions about what type of player of you are. Finally, opening a free account with SBR allows you to customize your very own “ODDS BOARD.”</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">This is helpful for you professionals who have multiple books (like you all should).</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">For example, let's assume that you have accounts with Legendz, Sportsbook.com, and Intertops. You can select these 3 books and view up-to-date live odds of all three side-by-side. What a tool!</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">The information that SBR provides is priceless.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Go check them out.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"></span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Once again, don’t let it happen to you.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">I’ve heard at least 5 stories in the last month of guys not being able to retrieve their winnings when it was time.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Have more than one book and know all of their deposit/withdrawl rules.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">If you do not have more than one book, make it a goal to have at least two, preferably 3 or more by the New Year.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Why?</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">When you have 3 or more books you get better value in the marketplace. In addition, you can take advantage of arbitrages as it pertains to the Sports Market.</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">What arbitrages? Stay Tuned...</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-75637807066630960952009-10-06T00:56:00.000-04:002013-11-28T00:59:03.854-05:00<span style="font-family: georgia;">Last week we went 2-2 in this section. That's the bad news. The good news is, if you bet our Dog Pound pick of Tennessee(+3) to win straight up, you covered your loses. In addition, our "Man-Crippler" picks went 7-0! That's 10-3 in the NFL last week. Let's get back on track today.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 78%;">Fabrizio's picks are in BOLD</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 180%;">'Flavor' Faves (2-2)</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">219 Pittsburgh (-6.5)</span><br />220 Cleveland</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">195 Indianapolis (-1.5)</span><br />196 Minnesota</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 180%;">Shelter Dogs (1-2)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">207 Atlanta (+7)</span><br />208 Tampa Bay</span><span style="font-size: 180%;">THA DOG POUND (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">205 Buffalo (+5)</span><br />206 Jacksonville</span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-40708188416307921892009-09-20T12:22:00.003-04:002013-11-28T00:30:19.279-05:00NFL Week Two (2)<b>Houston at Tennessee (-6', 40') 1:00PM ET</b>Tennessee has had a few more days to prepare for this one as they kicked off on last Thursday night at Pittsburgh. They should've won that game, no thanks to Kerry Collins. Jeff Fisher's squads are great in the first half of the season. The Texans were beat by a rookie QB (Mark Sanchez, NYJ) making his first start in their home opener. Nuff said.<b><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></b>We like.....<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Tennessee (-6')<br /><br />New England at NY Jets (+3', 46) 1:00PM ET<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></b>Rookie QB Mark Sanchez won on the road last week in his first official NFL start. And that's where it ends. All week you've probably been hearing about how the Patriots are wounded; they're not the same Patriots. You've heard about Jets coach Rex Ryan calling the season ticket holders. And of course you've heard about the Jets player who said the Jets wanted to punish the Pats. Remember this, Belichick IS the Evil Genius and he will have something ready for the rook. Getting New England at -3 is a bargain obviously fueled by Joe Public's over-reaction going into last week's Buffalo matchup.<br />
We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">New England (-3')</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">New Orleans at Philadelphia (Pk, 46') 1:00 PM ET</span><br />
No McNabb...in comes Kolb which means that the Eagles offensive gameplan will dumbed down. Lots of running with Westbrook followed with short dump offs to tight ends and fullbacks. Brees and the Saints don't do as well on the road as they do at home. Everyone is mesmerized by their potent offense. We don't see Philly losing its home opener even if it is the prolific Saints, however we can't back them either with unknown QB Kevin Kolb at the helm. Today we play contrarion and go UNDER the total.<br />
We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">UNDER (46')</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">St. Louis Rams at Washington (-9', 37) 1:00 PM ET</span><br />
C'mon man? Are you serious? The Redskins are essentially a 10 point favorite? Did Rypien come back? Did the Smurfs sign this week? Let me guess, the Hogs have discovered the fountain of youth and have signed a one week deal? Get the &*#! outta here. I'm willing to eat these words if I'm wrong but I don't see the Redskins beating ANYONE in the league by 10 points. I like Jason Campbell but I think his days are numbered as the starter. The Rams aren't as bad as last week's shutout performance (0-28) at Seattle last week...Seattle's just that good. This should be a relatively low scoring, boring, uninspirting game.<br />
We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">St. Louis (+9')</span><br />
We also like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">UNDER (37)</span>Ken Artisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00862443661713643052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-65874144204798065832009-09-16T19:56:00.004-04:002013-11-28T00:31:09.332-05:00What We Learned - NFL WK 01Has there ever been a week one that WASN'T exciting? I don't think so. Having said that, I'm not here to re-hash all of the week one highlights, injuries, and "Joe Public " drama. What I wanna do is to make a few observations that may or may not help your handicapping. Take it if you need it...leave it if you don't.<br />
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The first week of the NFL can be hard to cap when trying to choose sides so the first thing we want to do is to look at the totals of the week. There are some solid rules of thumb that seem to somehow always work. The 16 games played in week one split right down the middle 8-8 (O/U). Let's look at this very simple angle that says: <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">In any given week, go OVER the highest total on the board and go UNDER the lowest total on the board. </span> This angle was 2-0 in week one as the Tennessee/Pittsburgh game was the lowest total of the week at 35 (Result: TEN 10 PIT 13); and the Detroit/New Orleans game was the highest total of the week at 50 (Result: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">DET</span> 27 NO 45).<br />
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The second angle is one of my favorites because it capitalizes on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">overzealousness</span> of Joe Public who's been thirsting for action all summer long. Joe always believes that his brand new, revamped squad is going to absolutely "crush" their week one foe which tends to drive up the posted total. With that in mind, our second angle says: <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Take the UNDER in any week one game where the posted total is more than 44 points.</span> There were 6 games that fit this description. The result was a whopping 5-1 (UNDER). The one game that went OVER was the Detroit/New Orleans game that was covered in the previous angle above. Following these two angles would have gotten you a 6-1 record at worst! Keep up with us this season as we dig out more of these nuggets.Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-53837361401545878672009-09-03T18:27:00.002-04:002013-11-28T00:31:48.362-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 4 (Thu)<span style="font-weight: bold;">Miami at New Orleans (-2', 36') 8:00PM ET</span><br />
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We like.....New Orleans (-2')<br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Oakland at Seattle (-3, 36') 10:00PM ET</span><br />
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We like.....Seattle (-3)Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-38834566801727525592009-09-03T17:17:00.004-04:002013-11-28T00:32:53.621-05:00NCAA Football Gets UnderwayThursday night showcases 5 college games and as usual we have thoughts....<br />
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<span style="font-size: 100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">127 S Carolina 46</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">128 NC State -4</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;">The 'Ole Ball Coach put a beatdown on NC State last year in 34-0 in Columbia. However, this is a new year and the Cocks seem to be "cockless" returning only 11 of 22 starters. Stephen Garcia is the QB in his sophomore year. In his last outing, Outback Bowl vs. Iowa (10-31), Garcia had 4 TOs in just the first half. NC State is on an up tic. Coach Tom O'brien is in his 3rd year with NC State where most good coaches hit their stride. Combined with last year's blowout, the low number is a tactic to pull in action on S. Carolina. NC State should be favored by at least a touchdown. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NC State -4</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">129 Utah St 52</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">130 Utah -20'</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;">These two teams have batttled 108 times with complete domination by the Utes who have won the last 11 meetings. Two interesting notes: 1)Utah wins these games SU but don't usually cover the Utah St matchup at home (1-3ATS L4). 2) Utah State has a new HC, Gary Andersen. So what's the big deal? He was Utah's assistant HC and DC for the past 5 years. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Utah St +20'</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">131 Oregon 63'</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">132 Boise St -4'</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;">Let's see....Boise State...Oregon...blue "Smurf" turf...equals....LOTS OF POINTS. These two teams met for the first time last year and the #17 ranked Ducks were knocked off. Serious revenge game with no defense played. <span style="font-weight: bold;">OVER 63'</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">133 Troy -6'</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">134 Bowling Green 56'</span><span style="font-size: 85%;">I must be missing something. Since when did Troy become so respected that in a season opener they could go on the road and be favored against a MAC team especially when their only MAC outing was against N. Illinois (34-21) a loss. BG has a new HC in Dave Clawson whose last HC gig was in Richmond '04-'07. I don't care, can't trust Troy.</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size: 85%;"> Bowling Green +6'<br /><span style="font-size: 100%;"><br /><span style="font-size: 100%;">135 North Texas 59<br />136 Ball State -17'</span><span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 85%;">Two RS Freshman are slated to start for each team. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO SELECTION</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-35824768450555820752009-08-27T18:16:00.001-04:002013-11-28T00:40:55.178-05:002009 NFL Preseason Wk 3 (THU)<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-7, 37) 7:00PM ET</b>Tonight is the Vick premier. Jacksonville is still struggling to find an identity. Philly has yet to win a game. They face New England in week one, a winless Indianapolis in week two so they have to be licking their chops tonight. Never lay 7 points in a preseason game so we can't take Philly yet at the same time, we don't trust Jacksonville. We do however trust the OVER.<br />
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We like.....<b>OVER (37)</b> <b>3*</b><br />
We like.....<b>PHI (-320)</b> <br />
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<b>St. Louis at Cincinnati (-2', 34) 7:30PM ET</b><br />
Two uninspiring squads that will probably run a lot and not score.<br />
<br />
We like.....<b>UNDER (34)</b> <b>2*</b><br />
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<b>Miami at Tampa Bay (-2', 37) 8:00PM ET</b><br />
Out of the four games these teams have participated in, 3 have gone OVER the posted total. Tampa Bay is averaging about 20 points so far this preseason. We look to buck the trend as we see this game flying UNDER the posted total.<br />
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We like.....<b>UNDER (37) 2*</b><br />
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Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-60543003379365982232009-08-22T18:01:00.008-04:002013-11-28T00:41:14.071-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 2 (SAT)<span style="font-weight: bold;">Tampa Bay vs Jacksonville (-3, 34) 7:30 PM ET</span> <br />
This is the second straight road game for the Bucs as they fell to the Titans last week 20-27. Jacksonville stayed within in 3pts of Miami in their first preseason game 9-12. Both teams will look to put up more points this week. The OVER is 5-2-1 in Jacksonville's home games where the line is 34pts or less since 1995. In addition these two teams have gone OVER in all of their last 4 meetings.<br />
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We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">OVER (34)</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Pittsburgh vs Washington (-2', 33) 7:30 PM ET</span><br />
I personally think that Vegas is tipping their hand with this one. After last week, there's no way in the world I lay points with the Redskins...I don't care where they're playing. I don't care that Big Ben is not playing. That only means more time for veteran backup QB Charlie Batch and the next NFL QB sensation from Oregon, Dennis Dixon.<br />
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We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">PIT (+2')</span><br />
We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">UNDER (33)</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Carolina vs Miami (-2', 33') 7:30 PM ET</span><br />
Don't know why but I really like Carolina in this spot. They too, like the Bucs, are playing in their 2nd straight road game in this preseason. QB Delhomme should get more time this week. This team was able to put up 17pts against a NY Giant defense on the road.<br />
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We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">OVER (33')</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Detroit vs Cleveland (-3', 38) 7:30 PM ET</span><br />
Both teams have a lot to prove this upcoming season, however Detroit has a greater sense of urgency after a winless regular season. Cleveland scored NO points last week. Vegas seems to have taken this into account since the TOTAL is resonably high for this type of game.<br />
<span style="font-size: 85%; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 85%;">We like.....</span><span style="font-size: 85%; font-weight: bold;">DET (+3')</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">San Diego vs Arizona (-2, 37) 10:00 PM ET</span><br />
<br />
We like.....<span style="font-weight: bold;">SDC (+2)</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Buffalo vs Green Bay (-3, 38) 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">NO SELECTION</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">New Orleans vs Houston (-3, 39) 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">NO SELECTION</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">NY Giants vs Chicago (-2, 35) 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">NO SELECTION</span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Oakland vs San Francisco (-3, 35') 8:15 PM ET</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">NO SELECTION</span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Denver vs Seattle (-3, 36') 10:30 PM ET</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">NO SELECTION</span></span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-45953212542958613702009-08-21T16:28:00.005-04:002013-11-28T00:41:40.687-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 2 (FRI)<span style="font-weight: bold;">Tennessee at Dallas (-2', 38), 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
Kerry Collins is in trouble. He cannot afford to struggle like he did in his last outing. Vince Young is the backup QB and the backup is always the most popular guy in town. Especially when the backup is a 1st round draft selection that had a better than average last outing. We think the total is too high.<br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><br />We like...<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">UNDER (38)</span></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> 2*</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Tennessee 10 Dallas 30</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Kansas City at Minnesota (-3', 37), 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
Like him or detest him...he's back. Brett Favre makes his 2009 debut in his first preseason game since signing with the Vikings earlier this week. The Vikings were on the road last week (Indy) and covered as a 3 pt favorite (13-3). Kansas City is horrible on the road in the preseason 1-9 ATS last 10. Matt Cassell gets another chance to prove he's worth $60 million but he has to do it against one of the league's toughest defenses. Too many obstacles for the Chiefs.<br />
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We like...<span style="font-weight: bold;">MIN (-3') 2*</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 85%; font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Kansas City 13 Minnesota 17</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Atlanta at St. Louis (+3, 36), 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
The Rams are pumped up! They're off a road win last week (NY Jets) and are at home for the first time this season. HC Spagnuolo plans to give the starters ample time tonight. Atlanta will be "working on things" tonight. Take the "show out" Rams.<br />
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We like <span style="font-weight: bold;">STL (+3) 3*<br /><br /><span style="font-size: 85%;">FINAL: Atlanta 20 St. Louis 13</span></span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-67079686675171721262009-08-20T15:19:00.004-04:002013-11-28T00:42:00.838-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 2 (Thu)<span style="font-weight: bold;">Cincinnati at New England (-7, 36), 7:30 PM ET</span><br />
All the trends say go against any team favored by a TD or more in the preseason. The Pats have never been a TD or more favorite in the Belichick era. QB Carson Palmer of the Bengals won't play forcing J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson's brother Jordan Palmer to compete for the scraps. Randy Moss already looks to be in regular season form. Wes Welker is a coin flip. Look for LOTS OF RUNNING as HC Belichick didn't like what he saw last week in Philly.<br />
We like....<span style="font-weight: bold;"> CIN (+7) 1*</span><br />
We like <span style="font-weight: bold;">UNDER (36) 2*</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Philadelphia at Indianapolis (+3, 36), 8:00 PM ET</span><br />
No Vick tonight as he is not eligible to play yet. Look for McNabb and company to rebound from the 2 point loss to New England. Indianapolis is still working on making the HC transition. We like the situation this game presents where we PLAY ON ANY ROAD TEAM IN WEEK 2 of PRESEASON THAT LOSS IN WEEK 1 BY 3 OR LESS (NEP 27 - PHI 25). These teams are 14-6 (70%) ATS. We expect lots of blitzing from Philly to finalize their front 7 as well as limited time from Manning as HC Caldwell wants to play it safe in his first season.<br />
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We like... <span style="font-weight: bold;">PHI (-3) 3*</span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-90355183380131852002009-08-15T18:18:00.005-04:002013-11-28T00:40:23.665-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 1(c) Picks<strong>Jacksonville at Miami (-3, 33), 7:30 PM ET</strong>Jacksonville is notorious for not taking the first few games of the preseason seriously. On the other hand Miami is essentially a Bill Parcells organization and Parcells is known for wanting to excel in the preseason. HC Tony Sparano was 3-1 SU/ATS last preseason (his first) and the UNDER was 4-0. Miami seems like a sound pick being they are at home and off a Division Championship but we are going to buck the UNDER trend. We're thinking Miami Rookie QB Pat White will add some dimension to the Dolphins Wildcat formations. In addition, Jacksonville lost just about all their receivers but now sport FA WR Torry Holt. Jacksonville is probably going to want to work on the passing game.<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><strong><em><br /></em></strong><br />
We like.... <b>MIA(-3) 2* OVER (33)</b> <b>2*</b><br />
<b>FINAL: Jacksonville 9 Miami 12 [0] - PUSH/UNDER</b><br />
<strong>Carolina at NY Giants (-3, 32.5), 8:00 PM ET</strong><br />This is the first installment of Monday Night Football. Eli just signed his contract extension. The Giants as a whole are trying to refine their look post-Burress, post-Toomer era. The posted total is 32 and a hook. Nine (9) of the fifteen (15) or 60% of the preseason games played thus far have gone over the TOTAL of 32.5. We see no reason why this game would stay UNDER. Joe Public is thinking no Toomer+no Burress+no Steve Smith (Carolina - shoulder) = NO Points. Normally we would agree but here like above, we play contrarian.<br />
We like... <span style="font-weight: bold;">OVER (32.5) 2*</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Carolina 17 NY Giants 24 [+4] - NYG/OVER</span>Ken Artisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00862443661713643052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-46555995889437822652009-08-14T17:35:00.008-04:002013-11-28T00:35:31.402-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 1(b) Picks<span style="font-weight: bold;">St. Louis at NY Jets (-4, 33.5), 7:00 PM ET</span><br />
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<strong></strong>Two brand new coaches. Steve Spagnuolo former Giants defensive coordinator is new HC for the Rams. Rex Ryan former Baltimore defensive coordinator is new HC for the Jets. In addition both teams are installing new offenses or new personnel in current offenses. In addition, preseason HF of more than 3 points are 5-14 ATS since 2000. <strong><em><br /></em></strong><br />
We like.... <b>UNDER (33.5)</b> <b>2*</b><br />
<b>FINAL: St. Louis 23 - NY Jets 20 [-9.5] - Marc Bulger turned in a perfect 4 of 4 performance tonight for the Rams while the Jets took the bubble wrap off of Mark Sanchez. Two teams still struggling for an identity.</b><br />
<strong>Minnesota at Indianapolis (-1.5, 35), 7:30 PM ET</strong><br />No reason to think that Indianapolis will take this game anymore serious than they have any of their preseason contests under Brad Childress. Minnesota QB Tavaris Jackson should be eager to prove that he, not Favre, is the answer to the franchise.<br />
We like... <b>MIN(+1.5) 1*</b><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Minnesota 13 - Indianapolis 3 [+11.5] - And here they come...the cries for Sage Rosenfels to take over as starting QB of the Vikings. Easy folks...its just the preseason.</span><br />
<strong>Cincinnati at New Orleans (-3, 37), 8:00 PM ET</strong>New Orleans and Cincinnati are both expected to be among the most improved teams in the NFL this season, and both would like to get the exhibition campaign off to a great start when they meet on Friday night. The Bengals are excited about the return of QB Carson Palmer from injury. He’ll see time in this game, along with his brother Jordan. Under HC Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati has gone 13-10 ATS in the preseason and has been one of the few teams that produces OVER’s regularly, as they are 9-2 OVER the total in road games under Lewis. The Saints could help contribute offensively as well, as they come off a season in which they led the NFL in points.<br />
We will stay away. Leaning towards the OVER but the line is sort of high for a preseason contest<br />
<strong>FINAL: Cincinnati 7 - New Orleans 17 - We thought the total was too high. It's going to be hard at first to remember to look for Chad Ochocinco instead of Johnson in the boxscores this season. Chris Palmer threw a pick but otherwise looked just okay.</strong><br />
<strong>Denver at San Francisco (-3, 34), 10:00 PM ET</strong><br />There’s no disputing the fact that Josh McDaniels has made waves with the Broncos in his early days with the organization. He gets the first chance to show what his team will have on the field on Friday night in San Francisco. Very little figures to look familiar to Broncos’ fans, so you can pretty much throw out any past trends regarding Denver’s preseason success or its penchant for playing in higher scoring games. Kyle Orton will be the signal caller for McDaniels, but this is an offense that figures to be an even mix of run and pass. San Francisco has its own QB concerns, namely finding one to call its starter. The organization would love to see former #1 pick Alex Smith step up and claim the spot, but Shaun Hill has proven the more reliable option. This will be the first preseason head coaching experience for either McDaniels or 49ers’ head man Mike Singletary. <br />
We will watch this one. Too many changes in the Bronco organization to get a feel. San Francisco will have a new look as well.<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Denver 16 - San Francisco 17 - Rookie Glen Coffee and Frank Gore are going to be a great tandem. Even though it's preseason, this was a good way for Mike Singletary to start off his first full season as HC.</span><br />
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Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-35467287497239525852009-08-13T18:33:00.006-04:002013-11-28T00:34:01.675-05:002009 NFL Preseason Week 1(a) Picks<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDGqJgILa77YYJE9A_QqIBytY9xBLViQnoNSk_48ovghM_ogy81yUhwBbIGPrl49GqLSSxBNWZv97_k6aT6b2Xoo3Czr9Yt2x-xHMA9guuzCLe6_vVJSlcfeyjjz8mpuxQNdx4TChqjNs/s1600-h/tombrady.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5369582181914862546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDGqJgILa77YYJE9A_QqIBytY9xBLViQnoNSk_48ovghM_ogy81yUhwBbIGPrl49GqLSSxBNWZv97_k6aT6b2Xoo3Czr9Yt2x-xHMA9guuzCLe6_vVJSlcfeyjjz8mpuxQNdx4TChqjNs/s320/tombrady.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 206px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 300px;" /></a><br />
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Selections are rated out of 5* (stars)<br />
<b>New England at Philadelphia (-3.5, 35), 7:30 PM ET</b><br />
One word describes this <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">matchup</span>...<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Belichick</span>! <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Belichick</span> is one of those coaches (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Parcells</span> disciple) who doesn't believe in tossing away the preseason. The Patriots are 5-0-3 ATS in Game one of the preseason over the past 8 seasons while Andy Reid and the Eagles never seem to go all out in Game one where they are 0-5 ATS their last 5 tries. Brady should get at least a series and you get the extra half point. I'm hooked...pun intended.<br />
We like....<b><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">NEP</span>(+3.5) </b><span style="font-size: 85%;">3* <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: New England 27 - Philadelphia 25</span></span><span style="color: #666666; font-size: 85%;"> <span style="font-weight: bold;">[+5.5]</span> Wasn't Tom Brady sidelined with a nasty knee injury last year? WOW! Brady looked great last night as he gave us the money. Brady was 10 of 15 for 100 yards 2TDs and 1INT that looked like an errant jump ball to Moss. If that's not enough Brady has a new toy in veteran speedster Joey Galloway. Look for Brady to continue to press just a little to quell any clamor of him not being 100%. The Evil Genius Bill Belichick, as we pointed out, wants to win...even if it's preseason.</span><br />
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<b>Washington at Baltimore (-3, 31), 7:30 PM ET</b><br />Think of this one as a long slow stretch. Neither team has anything to prove tonight. Both starting <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">QBs</span> will see limited snaps. Baltimore is always looking to fine tune its defense early. Look for the Ravens to keep scoring to a minimum. The UNDER has gone 11-4 for them in exhibition play over the past 4 seasons. However, they have gone just 1-3 ATS in each of the last two preseasons, the latest under <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">HC</span> John <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Harbaugh</span>. As for the Redskins, Clinton <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Portis</span> figures not to play tonight. Washington was shaky last preseason at 2-3 ATS but are 11-3 as RD of 3 or less points. Second year <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">HC</span> Jim Zorn needs to get this Redskins team off to a good start.<br />
We are selecting... <b>WAS(+3)</b> <span style="font-size: 100%;">1* </span><b>UNDER(31)</b> <span style="font-size: 85%;">3*</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Washington 0 - Baltimore 23 [-20] [+8]</span></span><span style="color: #666666; font-size: 85%;"> We were reminded of a very valuable lesson last night...NEVER PUT MONEY ON THE REDSKINS! We stayed UNDER to get the money but the Skins did their best to put that in jeopardy. Jason Campbell...save your career...DEMAND A TRADE because that offensive line is going to get you killed. The Ravens speak for them selves, stout defense, solid running, control the line of scrimmage. We saw impressive QB play from 3rd year Ohio State product Troy Smith (14/30 200-1TD).</span><br />
<b>Arizona at Pittsburgh (-3, 34), 8:00 PM ET</b><br />It's the so-called Superbowl rematch. The Cards are in a bind still with <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">WR</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Anquan</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Boldin</span>. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">QBs</span> Kurt Warner and Matt <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Leinart</span> should see snaps. Keep in mind that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Leinart</span>, just like his college National Championship foe Vince Young, wants his job back. Look for him to press. We see no strong RELIABLE trends for this <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">matchup</span>. We suggest you sit this one out however if you must....<br />
We suggest <b>UNDER (34)</b> <span style="font-size: 85%;">3*</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Arizona 10 - Pittsburgh 20 [+4]</span></span><span style="color: #666666; font-size: 85%;"><br /></span><br />
<b>Dallas at Oakland (-1, 34.5), 10:00 PM ET</b><br />We have no idea how the Cowboys intend to replace the 1200 yards and 13<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">TDs</span> a year that T.O. brought to the table. The Cowboys hadn't seen that type of consistent production since the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Playmaker</span> himself retired. Now we REALLY get to see who this <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Romo</span> guy is. No excuses for being a novice - this will be his fourth year as a starter. No girlfriend excuses - Jessica Simpson is gone. And no more distracting, touchdown catching <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">WR</span> to save your ass - Terrell Owens gone. What do the real Cowboys look like? We're about to find out. Nothing to say about Oakland. They speak for themselves.<br />
We suggest <b>UNDER (34.5)</b> <span style="font-size: 100%;">2*</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">FINAL: Dallas 10 - Oakland 31 [-6.5]</span></span><span style="color: #666666; font-size: 85%;"> Jason Whitten is clearly the Cowboys answer to my question. The TE seems to be how they are going to address the loss of Owen's numbers. I like Jason Whitten, but he's no Shannon Sharpe.</span><br />
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Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-19167609368497184552009-08-13T17:18:00.003-04:002013-11-28T00:43:33.102-05:00Gentlemen...Start Your Bankrolls<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdXDuYisGr29WIWzxgweZxeiyZD8GMqCngWxCiDS1XOaRpzDUQgAdY_zhPSetuyckQ_z4VTN9yxqhaSmozPclBaCSMgFItCxNv-1dSvfYZ7m7jxguYUzg948wdayK6wh_nGLZr4r6DIUo/s1600-h/cash06.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5369561268748267314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdXDuYisGr29WIWzxgweZxeiyZD8GMqCngWxCiDS1XOaRpzDUQgAdY_zhPSetuyckQ_z4VTN9yxqhaSmozPclBaCSMgFItCxNv-1dSvfYZ7m7jxguYUzg948wdayK6wh_nGLZr4r6DIUo/s320/cash06.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 77px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 116px;" /></a><br />
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Tonight kicks off the first full week of exhibition play in the NFL for the 2009 season. I hear a lot of cappers say they only watch the pre-season. They're afraid to put their hard earned coinage on games that have so many question marks. Well here at Kinetik Sports, we follow the mantra of one of our contributors, Joverto, who famously ends most of his articles with, "SCARED money makes NO money." I admire and respect those that stay away. You should never risk your bankroll if you don't perceive yourself to have an edge. I submit that there is always an edge. The only questions that need to be asked are: How much of an edge and whether or not that edge is enough to warrant a wager? In addition, we view the preseason as a way to pad your bankroll by picking off your man.<br />
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So where are the edges? Coaches and quarterbacks. Some coaches place premiums on preseason games. For instance, Bill Parcels and his disciples tend to take preseason games very seriously. Other coaches to look at are any coach who is sitting on the hot seat. They need to impress the front office as well as tickle ticket sales. Marvin Lewis and Wade Phillips come to mind. As for quarterbacks, you want to look for teams who have a QB controversy brewing or on the horizon. Why? Since starters get few snaps, especially early in preseason, teams that have legitimate backup QBs tend to do better against the number. The backup usually thinks he's starting material and is going to try to move ahead of the starter. Vince Young, for example, desperately wants his job back from Kerry Collins. The Titans were -3 on Sunday versus the Bills and had the game covered from the start until the last play of the game...a safety...which made the game a push. In addition, Jeff Fisher's teams are known to do pretty well in the preseason, going 6-2 ATS over the last two preseasons.<br />
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The short of it? There are trends and angles that work in the preseason. Get busy and dig 'em up. It can be profitable and at the very least, it will get you sharp for the upcoming season...kinda like a handicapping mini-camp.<br />
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Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-16117150175276544522009-08-10T01:46:00.013-04:002013-11-28T00:44:06.338-05:00Dreamers and Slackers<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjVaABQhPeZ_rp6HDHqCK80nkMEYqnY5v8j7v-VcWPoabCOax-_76TWBYi2-HYZVxRCZd5KN_1INe8aSsSXWbaCyk5yqAwPqYp7wcP6x2DoD3W8Jkqj63QsZIed8COq4Z2SNeoGDZVp-E/s1600-h/dreamers.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5368222567552896994" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjVaABQhPeZ_rp6HDHqCK80nkMEYqnY5v8j7v-VcWPoabCOax-_76TWBYi2-HYZVxRCZd5KN_1INe8aSsSXWbaCyk5yqAwPqYp7wcP6x2DoD3W8Jkqj63QsZIed8COq4Z2SNeoGDZVp-E/s320/dreamers.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 145px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"> </span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;">Well...it's what you've all been waiting for...the official start of the 2009 NFL season. Just this past Saturday, the newest inductees to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in <st1:place st="on"><st1:city st="on">Canton</st1:city>, <st1:state st="on">OH</st1:state></st1:place>. Many handicappers only use the preseason to evaluate how the team chooses to incorporate its new talent, players and coaches as well. If you're one who doesn't like to test the waters until the regular season, you should be using this time to read training camp reports and dig up new possible new angles for the upcoming season.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;"> This is also a great time to get those prop bets in. You know: Who will win the Superbowl? Who will win each division? How many games can your favorite team expect to win? In this article, we're going to look at two groups of teams. Let's call them the Dreamers and the Slackers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;"> Who are the Dreamers? The Dreamers are the teams who, in 2008, won 3+ more games than they did in 2007. <i>Example of a Dreamer: In 2007 Team A won 5 games. In 2008 the same team won 9 games. That's a difference of 4 games.</i> We call these teams Dreamers because research shows that they were playing over their heads, sleep-walking or </span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;"><i>dreaming </i>if you will.</span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 16;"><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">Between 2002-2007, there were 55 teams that improved their W/L record by 3 or more games.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">Of that 55, only 14 were able to maintain or improve on that record in the following year.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">This means that 41 of 55 or about 75% of those had weaker records the following year.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">Last season had 9 such teams.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">One (<st1:place st="on"><st1:placename st="on">Tampa</st1:placename> <st1:placetype st="on">Bay</st1:placetype></st1:place>) had the same record.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">Another (<st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">Arizona</st1:place></st1:state>) had a better record by one game.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">The rest had weaker records:</span><span style="font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">WINS<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><br /></span></td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2006</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2007</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2008</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Cleveland</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td colspan="2" style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">10(+6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4 (-6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Dallas</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td colspan="2" style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">13(+4 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">9 (-4 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Detroit</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td colspan="2" style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">7(+4 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">0 (-7 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Green Bay</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td colspan="2" style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">13(+5 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">6 (-7 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Jacksonville</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11(+3 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">5 (-6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:place st="on">New England</st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 41.6pt;" valign="top" width="55"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 12.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">12<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td colspan="2" style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">16(+4 wins) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td colspan="2" style="height: 12pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 107.8pt;" valign="top" width="144"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11(-5 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:state><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">9(+4 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">8 (-1 win)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"> <span style="font-size: 130%;">This year's six (6) Dreamers are:</span><span style="font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">WINS<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" valign="top" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2007<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2008<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2009<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"> </span></b><st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-family: ";">Atlanta</span></st1:place></st1:city><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 42pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11(+7 wins)<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 42pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.4pt;" valign="top" width="121"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 21.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11(+6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" valign="top" width="127"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Carolina</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 42pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.4pt;" valign="top" width="121"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 21.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">12(+5 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" valign="top" width="127"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Miami</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 42pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.4pt;" valign="top" width="121"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 21.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11(+10 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" valign="top" width="127"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> NY Jets<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 42pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.4pt;" valign="top" width="121"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 27.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">9(+5 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" valign="top" width="127"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:state st="on"><st1:place st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:state><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 42pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.4pt;" valign="top" width="121"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 21.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">13(+3 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" valign="top" width="127"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"><span style="font-size: 85%;">?</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"> </span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;">Who are the Slackers? You guessed it. They are the teams whose records have suffered a net loss of more than 3 wins from one year to the next. This encompasses 43 teams from 2002-2008. 74% of these teams have gone on to improve their record the following year. Last season boasted 8 teams of that caliber(<st1:city st="on">Atlanta</st1:city>, <st1:city st="on">Baltimore</st1:city>, <st1:city st="on">Chicago</st1:city>, <st1:city st="on">Miami</st1:city>, <st1:city st="on">New Orleans</st1:city>, <st1:state st="on">NY</st1:state> Jets, <st1:city st="on">St Louis</st1:city>, <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">San Diego</st1:place></st1:city>). All but two (2) improved their record.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 130%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 16;"><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">This year's nine (9) Slackers are:</span><span style="font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse;"> <tbody>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
<br /></td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
<br /></td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">WINS<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
<br /></td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></div>
<br /></td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.6pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2007<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.2pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2008<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.2pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";">2009<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 85%;"><b><span style="font-family: ";"> </span></b><st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on"><span style="font-family: ";">Cincinnati</span></st1:place></st1:city></span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Cleveland</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4(-3 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4(-6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?</span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Dallas</st1:place></st1:city><b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">13<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">9(-4 wins)<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Detroit</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 9.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">0(-7 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Green Bay</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">13<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">6(-7 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Jacksonville</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">5(-6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:place st="on">New England</st1:place><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">16<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 12.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11(-5 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">San Diego</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">11<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">8(-3 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 215pt;" valign="top" width="287"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;"> <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Seattle</st1:place></st1:city><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48pt;" valign="top" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 6.6pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.4pt;" valign="top" width="105"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 15.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 85%;">4(-6 wins)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> <td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.4pt;" valign="top" width="135"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"><span style="font-size: 85%;">?</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 16;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 16;"> <span style="font-size: 130%;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "; font-size: 16;"><span style="font-size: 130%;">There you have it.</span><span style="font-size: 130%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 130%;">Some teams to key on as you get ready for the 2009 NFL regular season kickoff.</span></span><span style="font-family: "; font-size: 10;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Ken Artisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00862443661713643052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-55168474905954906802008-11-08T15:24:00.014-05:002013-11-28T00:47:46.842-05:00To Parlay or Not To Parlay……That’s the Question.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFRxusX57GdeIpnbSGgeFJOKY2YlqkmDtghxBZX2I6iL7Fen2OWuMRiGQjt5oJAiS8cqHTw6Cn3y6WQsuxXp4OSK1xX61NJ6gAan7sDHJJyCggXsKre3dKdhlgJbGP6P1B072XdTRyhjs/s1600-h/sb03.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5369125355376765746" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFRxusX57GdeIpnbSGgeFJOKY2YlqkmDtghxBZX2I6iL7Fen2OWuMRiGQjt5oJAiS8cqHTw6Cn3y6WQsuxXp4OSK1xX61NJ6gAan7sDHJJyCggXsKre3dKdhlgJbGP6P1B072XdTRyhjs/s320/sb03.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 101px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 101px;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: 130%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">What is a Parlay? A parlay is a bet involving two or more events. The payoff is larger than making separate bets, but the catch is that every team in the parlay must win (or cover) or the bettor loses the entire bet. Some experts believe parlays are for fools. This is true only if that’s your only strategy. I find value in playing “underdog” parlays in addition to single bets combinations of Favorites and Dawgs. Here’s an important fact: Favorites lose often (especially in College Football). If favorites won all of the time, Las Vegas Sportsbooks would go out of business. The public loves playing nonstop favorites. How many times have you turned to Sports Center on Saturday only to find a heavily favored powerhouse has lost to a “cupcake” (remember USC/Oregon State earlier this year)?</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">The following underdog parlay was wagered on 11/01/08 by one of the “players” at </span><a href="http://kinetiksports.wordpress.com/" style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">kinetiksports.wordpress.com </a><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">(a.k.a. The Man Crippler Club):</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Arkansas to win (3.1)</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">North Texas to win (6.6)</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Pittsburgh to win (2.6)</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Clemson to win (2.4)</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Central Michigan to win (2.1)</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">=====================</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Accumulated Odds = 268.11</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">$1 Bet = $268.11</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">*All Odds taken from www.intertops.com</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">As you can see the accumulated odds were 268-to-1. By risking $1, the reward is enormous. The downside is losing $1 if one of the teams does not win. Does this strategy work all of the time? Of course not. However, this strategy can be used as a hedging mechanism that protects the Sports Gambler when that heavily favored powerhouse let’s you down via single bets. Believe me, they will let you down. Remember…..an educated player is a smart player.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Wager at your own risk!</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">JoVerto (The Ghost of Free Pick Winners)</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-85231762526086106552008-10-05T00:18:00.012-04:002013-11-28T00:48:29.578-05:00Critics Are Idiots (and so are the Experts)<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Those who can, do. Those who can't, criticize. Have you ever decided not to go to a movie because a critic gave it a bad review, but when you watched it on DVD, you loved it? If you are going to become a successful gambler (risk-taker), you will need to ignore the critics. Risk-takers are willing to do what critics say cannot be done. Risk is at the center of all that is creative, positive, and significant in the world. Risk is essential to success. Without risk, we would not have many of things we enjoy today like the Internet, Cell Phones, and iPods. If you are going to become a successful gambler or risk-taker - whether the gamble is to bet on sports, invest in stocks, or start a business, you'll need to avoid the critics.<br /><br />Is there any other group that can kill your ability to win?<br /><br />We in America put our faith in "experts" and authority figures like no other society. In our society, television has credibility. Newspapers and magazines have credibility. People believe whatever they hear on TV. Millions of American sports bettors risk their hard-earned money daily after reading newspapers, newsletters and magazines, or listening to talk radio, or watching ESPN or FOX Sports. People bet on what they think is gut instinct. What they don't realize is that this subconscious voice is based on an entire week of brainwashing from surfing the Net, watching pre-game shows and listening to sports talk radio. True gut instinct is unpolluted and uncorrupted by outside influences. Therefore your sports-betting selections based on gut instinct should be made each week on Sunday Night based on the opening line that is set in Las Vegas. Your picks made this early in the week are thereby produced before you've been exposed to hundreds of "experts" that mislead and confuse millions of gullible readers, viewers, listeners and handicappers.<br /><br />Wager at your own risk!<br />JoVerto</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-28824518342701385062008-09-19T23:48:00.010-04:002013-11-28T00:39:57.730-05:00Las Vegas Oddsmakers<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR1j34p938QH9Sx95V9zYd1GaBgnl1uQkswDLrheqGHHKzhrywFX5oMfO0AyVO1kSfgufg5appAtargINN0fekopkFR_iG6m8kBOl6NQDwt_KHXFVpFgEEwEpPOFPyj1gP90px9dvujq0/s1600/lasvegas.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5766738393448716466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR1j34p938QH9Sx95V9zYd1GaBgnl1uQkswDLrheqGHHKzhrywFX5oMfO0AyVO1kSfgufg5appAtargINN0fekopkFR_iG6m8kBOl6NQDwt_KHXFVpFgEEwEpPOFPyj1gP90px9dvujq0/s320/lasvegas.jpg" style="cursor: hand; float: right; height: 194px; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; width: 259px;" /></a><br />
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<span style="font-size: 130%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">My Grandfather was a professional gambler. Back in the late eighties, he taught me two simple gambling rules. Rule #1: The oddsmakers are smarter than you or me. These professionals do not make mistakes, period. Rule #2: If the oddsmaker seems wrong, refer back to Rule #1.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Grandpa taught me to look at the line set each day for football, basketball, baseball -- any sport. Look for lines that look "bad". Whenever you find a line that looks like an obvious error or misjudgement (even if it's so bad it looks like a printer's error or computer glitch), bet with that mistake. Assume the oddsmakers are correct and they know something you don't. </span><em style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Because they do! </em><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">No one knows more than professional Las Vegas Oddsmakers. Their entire life is figuring out correct lines. If they are wrong, tens of millions of dollars could be lost. If they're wrong very often, they won't stay employed as oddsmakers for long.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Every day you should analyze the line. You'll find one or two games that look as though the wrong team is favored, or a slightly better team is favored by too much. In each of these cases, my advice is to wager on the wrong team or the side that makes no sense.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">The Vegas Oddsmaker is paid to spend 24/7 researching games, teams, players, situations, and injuries. If something in the line looks wrong, you can bet they have found something crucial and significant to the outcome of the game that you never saw or never had access to. I've tried to isolate oddsmaker's "mistakes" and bet with them (on the wrong side). It's not a bad thing to bet with the house. The house wins. Or as they say in poker, look around the table. If you don't know who the sucker is, it's you.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Good Luck,</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">JoVerto</span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-85818870467223893962008-09-13T00:51:00.009-04:002013-11-29T10:33:56.405-05:00Why "Favorites" Lose So Often<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWvfJs21Z_bQRRjLeM-AqLonISsu6RWf6uIaOm3kugGKUJoKhs_iSCqcTDHYKrT_O94nDNORFlMjJtUsqLHlNamyvk_0etGQTP8T-H6GKw1-mz4njfh_rtsabSL4uQSGNydUBuSKcBQbs/s1600/favoriteslose.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWvfJs21Z_bQRRjLeM-AqLonISsu6RWf6uIaOm3kugGKUJoKhs_iSCqcTDHYKrT_O94nDNORFlMjJtUsqLHlNamyvk_0etGQTP8T-H6GKw1-mz4njfh_rtsabSL4uQSGNydUBuSKcBQbs/s1600/favoriteslose.jpg" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: 130%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Let me first say that "favorites" don't lose in all situations. In fact, statistics over the last 20 years prove that favorites and underdogs are actually quite even vs. the points spread. The problem isn't betting all the favorites. The house (or bookmaker) owns the real edge when you choose to bet certain favorites: public favorites (teams everyone loves and sees as infallible). It's specifically the most popular favorites, games where the betting public cannot picture the favorite losing under any circumstances, that wind up destroying the bankrolls of the masses. Why is this true?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Reason #1 - Lopsided Betting Action</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Bookmakers adjust lines to keep the betting as equal as possible. Why? Because if there's equal money, the bookmaker takes no risk; he wins no matter what. Bookmakers automatically collect a 10% commission (called "vigorish" or "juice"). All a bookmaker wants is even money on every game. That's your edge as a bettor! Since 80% or more of the public bets almost exclusively on favorites, the bookmakers and oddsmakers have no choice but to constantly slant the lines against the favorite to get some betting action on the underdog.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Reason #2 - Better Teams Are Overrated</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">On any given Sunday (as the saying goes) any team, no matter how pathetic, can finally put a flawless performance together and beat a far superior team. No matter how dominant a team appears, even an unbeaten team is capable of being upset in the right situation by what appears to be a far inferior team. The points spread is set to accommodate the perception - not the reality. If the public perception is that a team is unbeatable, the points rise dramatically. So this perception has created an even bigger edge for the underdog bettor.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Reason #3 - Underdog Psychology</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">And you wonder why pathetic underdogs regularly win games against dominant favorites? The underdog has been waiting all week for this game. The dog has a chip on his shoulder; he has something to prove. The underdog is sick of losing. He wants desperately to taste victory and rub it in the other teams face. Likewise, the big favorite is overconfident. How many times have you turned on SportsCenter only to find that one of the strongest teams on the board just lost to a "cupcake".</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">I'll take the underdog every time. Does betting underdogs work? Certainly not every time. But underdogs provide a slight edge to the sports handicapper. I've never met a winning gamber who did not make underdogs the cornerstone of his betting strategy.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Wager at your own risk!</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">JoVerto</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Glossary of Common Betting Terms</span><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">=========================</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">ATS</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - Acronym for Against The Spread</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Bookmaker</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - A person who accepts bets on sporting events, either legally or illegally (a.k.a. "Your Man" or "Your Bookie").</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Contrarian</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - A bettor who is always against the public or the masses of amateur bettors.</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Cover</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - To beat the Spread.</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Dime</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - Gambler's slang for a bet to win $1000, as in "I bet a dime on the Philadelphia Eagles. If they cover the spread, I win $1000"</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Favorite</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - The team that is considered most likely to win by the professional oddsmakers or sportsbooks.</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Hook</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - Gambler's slang for half a point - As in "I'm betting South Florida minus 5 and a hook". This means -5.5 points.</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Moneyline</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - A straight money bet on the outcome of the games with no point spread involved.</span><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"></strong><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Parlay</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - A bet involving two or more events. Every team in the group must win or the bettor loses the entire bet.</span><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"></strong><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Push</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - A tie. If a game finishes exactly on the points spread (i.e., Dallas -5 wins by exactly 5)</span><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"></strong><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Underdog</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - The team that is considered least likley to win by the professional oddsmakers or sportsbook.</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Vigorish</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - A charge or commission on each losing bet extracted by the bookmaker. Also called "the juice".</span><br /><br /><strong style="font-family: trebuchet ms;">Wise Guys</strong><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;"> - Term for smart professional gamblers. Also called "smart money".</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-83778660043172090282008-09-10T15:30:00.003-04:002013-11-29T09:56:21.555-05:00What We Do at Kinetik Sports<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">This is kinda what we like to do at </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Kinetik</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> Sports. As we're taking it up field, we seek out "The Man." Once we have him in our sites, we size him up and then....<br /></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"><br /><br />we hurdle 'em. But let's be honest, NOTHING beats having a weekend full of games where you are on the RIGHT side of over 75% of them! NOTHING beats putting "The Man" on his ASS!!!<br /></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"><br /><br /><br />Aw man that was nasty! I know what you're saying, "Who goes 75% in a weekend?" The answer is simple...WE DO! Last weekend in the NFL, </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Kinetik</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;"> Sports was a hefty 10-3 ATS. "Yeah, right </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Fabrizio</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">, you went 10-3?" Yep, sure did. But I'm not asking you to believe me. Go out to <a href="http://www.provenplays.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">ProvenPlays</span>.com</a> where all of our picks are documented. "Lucky weekend!" I guess you could say that. But if that's so, then that means we've been "lucky" for the past year. That's how long we've been a member of <a href="http://www.provenplays.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">ProvenPlays</span>.com</a> and during that time we are 65% ATS. You don't get to that level without fundamentally understanding "the Market." Over 10 years of experience and hard work make us one of the best in "The Market?" Yes, "THE MARKET!" The 80's classic movie, "Trading Places" starring Eddie Murphy and Dan </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">Akroyd</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms; font-size: 130%;">, perfectly illustrates "THE MARKET."<br /><br />Soon after Randolph and Mortimer take Eddie's character, Billy Ray Valentine, off the streets and clean him up, they attempt to explain to him what it is they do for a living. After a long drawn out explanation of how the stock market works, and how they as commodities brokers interact with the market, Billy Ray looks at them both and says, "Sounds like you guys are a couple of bookies!" To which Randolph looks to his brother Mortimer and says, "I told you he'd understand!" Well to keep with the analogy, we are like the guys who advise the speculators. For example, we're like the guy who came to you in the Summer of 2001 and told you to position the bulk of your assets towards oil futures! What? No guy came to you with that information? Well here's your chance to be down with that guy.<br /><br />Just like Billy Ray and Louis, we use the tools we have available to send Randolph, "The Man", to the hospital.</span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-6732780404251006592008-09-07T16:13:00.007-04:002009-08-08T17:59:38.429-04:00Deacon's Notes 2008<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >You want it. You need it. And now, I’m going to give it to you. That’s right, after almost a 10-year hiatus, DEACON’S NOTES is back and taking no prisoners! For those precious few of you unfamiliar to DN, let me take a brief moment to enlighten you. DN began as a supplement to Rashid’s (aka, "Kinetik Sports") weekly fantasy football updates during our league last decade, and quickly turned into a cult phenomenon in our league (ok, so there was only like, 10 people and they were automatically emailed the newsletter against their will each week, but why sweat the details?). Anyway, DN proved to be my outlet for talking about my favorite subject: college football. Don’t get me wrong, I love “The League”, but something about the pageantry, drama and spectacle that is college football really gets me going, and DN is a healthy way for me to deal with my [bordering on] unhealthy addiction with college football. So, without any further ado, let’s get down to business.<br /><br />First, some random thoughts….<br /><br />McCain seems like a pretty nice guy, but I’m beginning to think that he truly believes that the rest of the country is as dumb as he is. So, let me get this straight, I’m supposed to believe that you’re a “maverick” and a “reformer”, but you’re still funding your campaign from taxpayer dollars and lobbyist groups? Um, that’s not change, that’s, um, how you say, “more of the same”….<br /><br />Why do people want to shake your hand when they bump into you coming out of the restroom? That’s nasty. Give me a head nod and I’m good….<br /><br />Are transsexuals the new “in” oppressed group? Diddy has a transsexual on his umpteenth show, “I Want to Work for Diddy” (an aside: who keeps green-lighting Diddy’s shows? Fire that person. Immediately. I mean, seriously, what the hell happened to the first 3 bands on “Making the Band”? Are they still fetching cheesecakes? But, I digress...), and Tyra apparently will have a transsexual on her upcoming season of “America’s Next Top Model”. Work it girl. I mean guy. I mean, oh, never mind….<br /><br />Congress actually has a duty to fix bridges that collapse on major US highways under Congress’ “Commerce Powers” enumerated in a little doctrine I like to call the US Constitution. A collapsed bridge on say, US-95, would cripple a major commerce pipeline (bad for the economy). Thus, Congress has a vested interest in ensuring that collapsed bridges are repaired in a timely fashion (good for the economy). That same doctrine could also apply to, um, let’s say, a hurricane that submerges a US city underwater (not likely, but it could happen. Wait, what’s that you say?). I know, extra random, but sometimes, I like DN to be educational…you know, just in case someone believes that those responsibilities fall upon the states’ shoulders….<br /><br />Chad Pennington is still in the league, but Daunte Culpepper recently retired. Chew on that….<br /><br />This week’s DN will focus on my favorite college football league, the Atlantic Coast Conference, or, as the media likes to refer to it, the “</span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >A</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >lways </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >C</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >hoking against other </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >C</span><span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >onferences” league. As usual, I will pan through the league via my world renowned “Deacon’s Weekly Awards”. Now, on to the presentations....<br /><br />The “We Are Who We Are…I Think” Award goes to: Virginia. Three years into the Mike Groh era on offense, the Hoos still don’t have an identity. Hey, maybe I’ll make my cousin my attorney. I mean, he’s never been to law school, but he does really, really like Law & Order. Catch the hint Al Groh.<br /><br />The “Creative Genius” Award goes to: Tommy Bowden & the Clemson Tigers. I appreciate any man who can devise innovative new ways to choke EVERY season. Just when I think I have their choke pattern figured out, the Tigers one-up me with an entirely new method of flushing their season. We’re watching greatness in action and not even appreciating it….<br /><br />The first-ever “Crisco & Drawn Butter” Award goes to: Ralph Friedgen. Maryland fans, this is an impassioned plea to you: get your coach. Seriously, no more batter-fried bacon for this guy; step awayyyyy from the deep fried cupcakes. Seriously Maryland. Seriously.<br /><br />The “Cottonelle Loving Your Backside” Award goes to: the ACC. I love the ACC. I love it to the core, but you have to be high-off-of-your arse to believe that the league doesn’t suck this year. Two words: Wake Forest. The ACC’s highest (and only) ranked team. Do I really need to go any further with this?<br /><br />And finally, the “What do you mean it’s not the 90’s?” Award goes to: Florida State. You heard it here first: Florida State is about to go postal on the ACC. The league NEEDS dominant teams, and FSU (and Miami as a close second) have the tools to bring balance back to the force (ahem, Wake Forest). FSU is loaded with talent this year and no one expects them to win. Also, Jimbo Fisher, the head coach-in-waiting is finally assuming the reigns with Bowden more of a figurehead (trying to outlast Joe Pa), so expect the offense to be lethal in year two of Fish’s go-round. They put up 69 points yesterday. Yeah, I know it was some crap team, but when was the last time FSU put up that many points against anyone?<br /><br />As always, I have to remind everyone that this is all in fun and should not be used for gambling purposes (for that, check out Joverto’s or Kinetik's blogs). I go with my heart, not my head, so if you’re using my advice as the impetus for any bet, then you obviously have money to waste. Next week, we’ll take a glance at “The League”, but for now, make that money, don’t let that money make you.<br /><br />Maryland, get your coach.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-79477362266676901902008-09-07T10:52:00.012-04:002009-08-08T18:16:00.277-04:00What's Up....Dog?!?<span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" >Well here we are. Week one of the 2008-09 NFL Football Season. Oh, we've waited so long. So long we've waited to pad our bankrolls. One can only play so much Texas Hold 'Em. We don't toy with MLB match ups and preseason football is just that, PRE-season. Once again welcome.<br /><br />This year I will publish a weekly post that I like to call...."It's Sunday afternoon...WHERE'S YOUR MONEY?" Here at Kinetik Sports we covet canines. Yes, DOGS. We absolutely love 'em. Why? Who doesn't like getting points? That was the only way I would play basketball against my bigger, older brother. And until I was about 17 years old, it was the only way I could beat him! So we like to highlight our favorite dogs of the week and we put them in two categories: The Dog Shelter and The Dog Pound. In addition, I'll name my 'Flavor' Faves -- the teams I think have the best chance to lay the number. Let's talk more about those dogs.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Shelter Dogs</span><br />Shelter dogs are the ones you find that just need a home. You can usually find them in shelters run by Not-For-Profit organizations. Usually they are great pets with a great temperament. They can be trained to bring you your slippers, roll over, or to sit on command. In the handicapping world, Shelter Dogs are those dogs that, given the right points, have more than a good chance to cover the number. These are teams that on paper match up to their opponents and may have an unperceived advantage in two or more areas. When these teams win fans are surprised but logically the win makes sense. Here at Kinetik Sports we try to identify these Shelter Dogs early on in the season because they tend to be very reliable.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Pound Dogs</span><br />Pound dogs can be found in government-run facilities. These are usually stray dogs, dogs that have been mistreated, abandoned, or abused. Their temperament is for shit and they can't be trained. They will bite anyone who they perceive as a threat, including you the owner in some cases. Back in the capping world, Pound Dogs can be thought of as those teams who not only match up well and have intangibles like Shelter Dogs, but also have the ability to win the game straight up. As much as we like Shelter Dogs, we absolutely adore the Dog Pound. Why? Simply because money on a dog to win straight up pays handsomely. Don't believe me, ask Joverto. Yesterday, as a part of his "Man Crippler" Club, he gave the following dogs to win SU (Akron, Air Force, Rice, ECU, & Midd Tenn St). Just $50 on ECU and $50 on Middle Tennessee would have returned more than $400 to your pocket!<br /><br />Look for more on this topic later.<br /></span>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2709085590704723119.post-29482464992023719512008-09-07T00:15:00.018-04:002009-08-08T18:15:42.463-04:00Understanding Money Lines - A Primer<span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">When I first started capping games, odds were explained to me in decimal format. For example, my favorite book, on an average game where the line is a touchdown or less is 1.91. Which means $100 on bet on the winning side will yield a return of $191. Easy right? Well, I started betting in the fall, late October-early November. At the end of the football season, I rolled my new-found knowledge into the NBA and NCAA Hoops. And then the Spring came and </span></span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" >MLB</span><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"> raised the curtain on their season. I'm not a </span></span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" >MLB</span><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"> fan but was interested to see that the lines of their games weren't in decimal format. They were in money line format.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Don't get me wrong once they were explained to me, they were easy to understand. Here goes... Lets say you want to bet on TEAM A and the money line is -110. What this means is that you must risk $110 to win $100. But lets say the money line was +110. This would mean that a bet of $100 would return $110. Once again, easy right? But what if you don't have $100? What if you just want to know what the decimal line is because </span></span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" >that's</span><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"> easier? Is there a way that I can convert that money line to the decimal line? The answer is of course you can! WARNING: If you are not a math geek or have a math-</span></span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" >phobia</span><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">, this next section may not make sense or may confuse you. However, the principles are easy to understand. Follow me...</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">To convert </span></span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:130%;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" >MoneyLines</span><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"> to Decimal style odds we use two separate formulas. One for underdogs, the other for favorites. First things first, MINUS means Favorite and PLUS means Underdog.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">UNDERDOGS: [For this example assume money line is +275]</span><br /></span><ol style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><li><span style="font-size:130%;">Add 100 to </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" style="font-size:130%;">MoneyLine</span><span style="font-size:130%;">. [275+ 100 = 375]</span></li><li><span style="font-size:130%;">Divide the result above by 100 [375/100=3.75]</span></li><li><span style="font-size:130%;">There you have it. The decimal odds are 3.75 </span></li></ol><p style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:130%;">FAVORITES: [For this example assume money line is -115]</span></p><ol style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><li><span style="font-size:130%;">Divide the number 10000 by the </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" style="font-size:130%;">MoneyLine</span><span style="font-size:130%;">. [10000/115=86.96]</span></li><li><span style="font-size:130%;">Add 100 to the result above [86.96+100=186.96]</span></li><li><span style="font-size:130%;">Divide the result from 2. by 100 [186.96/100=1.8696]</span></li><li><span style="font-size:130%;">The decimal odds are 1.8696</span></li></ol><p style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:130%;">That's it. Simple. Right?</span></p>Fabrizio "Fab" DeLucahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14033830693497105786noreply@blogger.com