NFL Week Two (2)

Houston at Tennessee (-6', 40') 1:00PM ET
Tennessee has had a few more days to prepare for this one as they kicked off on last Thursday night at Pittsburgh. They should've won that game, no thanks to Kerry Collins. Jeff Fisher's squads are great in the first half of the season. The Texans were beat by a rookie QB (Mark Sanchez, NYJ) making his first start in their home opener. Nuff said.
We like.....Tennessee (-6')

New England at NY Jets (+3', 46) 1:00PM ET
Rookie QB Mark Sanchez won on the road last week in his first official NFL start. And that's where it ends. All week you've probably been hearing about how the Patriots are wounded; they're not the same Patriots. You've heard about Jets coach Rex Ryan calling the season ticket holders. And of course you've heard about the Jets player who said the Jets wanted to punish the Pats. Remember this, Belichick IS the Evil Genius and he will have something ready for the rook. Getting New England at -3 is a bargain obviously fueled by Joe Public's over-reaction going into last week's Buffalo matchup.
We like.....New England (-3')

New Orleans at Philadelphia (Pk, 46') 1:00 PM ET
No McNabb...in comes Kolb which means that the Eagles offensive gameplan will dumbed down. Lots of running with Westbrook followed with short dump offs to tight ends and fullbacks. Brees and the Saints don't do as well on the road as they do at home. Everyone is mesmerized by their potent offense. We don't see Philly losing its home opener even if it is the prolific Saints, however we can't back them either with unknown QB Kevin Kolb at the helm. Today we play contrarion and go UNDER the total.
We like.....UNDER (46')

St. Louis Rams at Washington (-9', 37) 1:00 PM ET
C'mon man? Are you serious? The Redskins are essentially a 10 point favorite? Did Rypien come back? Did the Smurfs sign this week? Let me guess, the Hogs have discovered the fountain of youth and have signed a one week deal? Get the &*#! outta here. I'm willing to eat these words if I'm wrong but I don't see the Redskins beating ANYONE in the league by 10 points. I like Jason Campbell but I think his days are numbered as the starter. The Rams aren't as bad as last week's shutout performance (0-28) at Seattle last week...Seattle's just that good. This should be a relatively low scoring, boring, uninspirting game.
We like.....St. Louis (+9')
We also like.....UNDER (37)

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What We Learned - NFL WK 01

Has there ever been a week one that WASN'T exciting? I don't think so. Having said that, I'm not here to re-hash all of the week one highlights, injuries, and "Joe Public " drama. What I wanna do is to make a few observations that may or may not help your handicapping. Take it if you need it...leave it if you don't.

The first week of the NFL can be hard to cap when trying to choose sides so the first thing we want to do is to look at the totals of the week. There are some solid rules of thumb that seem to somehow always work. The 16 games played in week one split right down the middle 8-8 (O/U). Let's look at this very simple angle that says: In any given week, go OVER the highest total on the board and go UNDER the lowest total on the board. This angle was 2-0 in week one as the Tennessee/Pittsburgh game was the lowest total of the week at 35 (Result: TEN 10 PIT 13); and the Detroit/New Orleans game was the highest total of the week at 50 (Result: DET 27 NO 45).

The second angle is one of my favorites because it capitalizes on the overzealousness of Joe Public who's been thirsting for action all summer long. Joe always believes that his brand new, revamped squad is going to absolutely "crush" their week one foe which tends to drive up the posted total. With that in mind, our second angle says: Take the UNDER in any week one game where the posted total is more than 44 points. There were 6 games that fit this description. The result was a whopping 5-1 (UNDER). The one game that went OVER was the Detroit/New Orleans game that was covered in the previous angle above. Following these two angles would have gotten you a 6-1 record at worst! Keep up with us this season as we dig out more of these nuggets.

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2009 NFL Preseason Week 4 (Thu)

Miami at New Orleans (-2', 36') 8:00PM ET

We like.....New Orleans (-2')

Oakland at Seattle (-3, 36') 10:00PM ET

We like.....Seattle (-3)

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