Dreamers and Slackers

Well...it's what you've all been waiting for...the official start of the 2009 NFL season. Just this past Saturday, the newest inductees to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, OH. Many handicappers only use the preseason to evaluate how the team chooses to incorporate its new talent, players and coaches as well. If you're one who doesn't like to test the waters until the regular season, you should be using this time to read training camp reports and dig up new possible new angles for the upcoming season.

This is also a great time to get those prop bets in. You know: Who will win the Superbowl? Who will win each division? How many games can your favorite team expect to win? In this article, we're going to look at two groups of teams. Let's call them the Dreamers and the Slackers.

Who are the Dreamers? The Dreamers are the teams who, in 2008, won 3+ more games than they did in 2007. Example of a Dreamer: In 2007 Team A won 5 games. In 2008 the same team won 9 games. That's a difference of 4 games. We call these teams Dreamers because research shows that they were playing over their heads, sleep-walking or dreaming if you will. Between 2002-2007, there were 55 teams that improved their W/L record by 3 or more games. Of that 55, only 14 were able to maintain or improve on that record in the following year. This means that 41 of 55 or about 75% of those had weaker records the following year. Last season had 9 such teams. One (Tampa Bay) had the same record. Another (Arizona) had a better record by one game. The rest had weaker records:

			WINS
	2006	2007		2008
Cleveland	4	10(+6 wins)		4 (-6 wins)
Dallas	9	13(+4 wins)		9 (-4 wins)
Detroit	3	7(+4 wins)		0 (-7 wins)
Green Bay	8	13(+5 wins)		6 (-7 wins)
Jacksonville	8	11(+3 wins)		5 (-6 wins)
New England	12	16(+4 wins)		11(-5 wins)
Washington	5	9(+4 wins)		8 (-1 win)

This year's six (6) Dreamers are:

		WINS
	2007	2008	2009
Atlanta	4	11(+7 wins)	?
Baltimore	5	11(+6 wins)	?
Carolina	7	12(+5 wins)	?
Miami	1	11(+10 wins)	?
NY Jets	4	9(+5 wins)	?
Tennessee	10	13(+3 wins)	?

Who are the Slackers? You guessed it. They are the teams whose records have suffered a net loss of more than 3 wins from one year to the next. This encompasses 43 teams from 2002-2008. 74% of these teams have gone on to improve their record the following year. Last season boasted 8 teams of that caliber(Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Miami, New Orleans, NY Jets, St Louis, San Diego). All but two (2) improved their record.

This year's nine (9) Slackers are:

		WINS
	2007	2008	2009
Cincinnati Cleveland	7 10	4(-3 wins) 4(-6 wins)	? ?
Dallas	13	9(-4 wins)	?
Detroit	7	0(-7 wins)	?
Green Bay	13	6(-7 wins)	?
Jacksonville	11	5(-6 wins)	?
New England	16	11(-5 wins)	?
San Diego	11	8(-3 wins)	?
Seattle	10	4(-6 wins)	?

There you have it. Some teams to key on as you get ready for the 2009 NFL regular season kickoff.