Tonight kicks off the first full week of exhibition play in the NFL for the 2009 season. I hear a lot of cappers say they only watch the pre-season. They're afraid to put their hard earned coinage on games that have so many question marks. Well here at Kinetik Sports, we follow the mantra of one of our contributors, Joverto, who famously ends most of his articles with, "SCARED money makes NO money." I admire and respect those that stay away. You should never risk your bankroll if you don't perceive yourself to have an edge. I submit that there is always an edge. The only questions that need to be asked are: How much of an edge and whether or not that edge is enough to warrant a wager? In addition, we view the preseason as a way to pad your bankroll by picking off your man.
So where are the edges? Coaches and quarterbacks. Some coaches place premiums on preseason games. For instance, Bill Parcels and his disciples tend to take preseason games very seriously. Other coaches to look at are any coach who is sitting on the hot seat. They need to impress the front office as well as tickle ticket sales. Marvin Lewis and Wade Phillips come to mind. As for quarterbacks, you want to look for teams who have a QB controversy brewing or on the horizon. Why? Since starters get few snaps, especially early in preseason, teams that have legitimate backup QBs tend to do better against the number. The backup usually thinks he's starting material and is going to try to move ahead of the starter. Vince Young, for example, desperately wants his job back from Kerry Collins. The Titans were -3 on Sunday versus the Bills and had the game covered from the start until the last play of the game...a safety...which made the game a push. In addition, Jeff Fisher's teams are known to do pretty well in the preseason, going 6-2 ATS over the last two preseasons.
The short of it? There are trends and angles that work in the preseason. Get busy and dig 'em up. It can be profitable and at the very least, it will get you sharp for the upcoming season...kinda like a handicapping mini-camp.
So where are the edges? Coaches and quarterbacks. Some coaches place premiums on preseason games. For instance, Bill Parcels and his disciples tend to take preseason games very seriously. Other coaches to look at are any coach who is sitting on the hot seat. They need to impress the front office as well as tickle ticket sales. Marvin Lewis and Wade Phillips come to mind. As for quarterbacks, you want to look for teams who have a QB controversy brewing or on the horizon. Why? Since starters get few snaps, especially early in preseason, teams that have legitimate backup QBs tend to do better against the number. The backup usually thinks he's starting material and is going to try to move ahead of the starter. Vince Young, for example, desperately wants his job back from Kerry Collins. The Titans were -3 on Sunday versus the Bills and had the game covered from the start until the last play of the game...a safety...which made the game a push. In addition, Jeff Fisher's teams are known to do pretty well in the preseason, going 6-2 ATS over the last two preseasons.
The short of it? There are trends and angles that work in the preseason. Get busy and dig 'em up. It can be profitable and at the very least, it will get you sharp for the upcoming season...kinda like a handicapping mini-camp.
