13.8.09

2009 NFL Preseason Week 1(a) Picks


Selections are rated out of 5* (stars)
New England at Philadelphia (-3.5, 35), 7:30 PM ET
One word describes this matchup...Belichick! Belichick is one of those coaches (Parcells disciple) who doesn't believe in tossing away the preseason. The Patriots are 5-0-3 ATS in Game one of the preseason over the past 8 seasons while Andy Reid and the Eagles never seem to go all out in Game one where they are 0-5 ATS their last 5 tries. Brady should get at least a series and you get the extra half point. I'm hooked...pun intended.
We like....NEP(+3.5) 3*

FINAL: New England 27 - Philadelphia 25 [+5.5] Wasn't Tom Brady sidelined with a nasty knee injury last year? WOW! Brady looked great last night as he gave us the money. Brady was 10 of 15 for 100 yards 2TDs and 1INT that looked like an errant jump ball to Moss. If that's not enough Brady has a new toy in veteran speedster Joey Galloway. Look for Brady to continue to press just a little to quell any clamor of him not being 100%. The Evil Genius Bill Belichick, as we pointed out, wants to win...even if it's preseason.

Washington at Baltimore (-3, 31), 7:30 PM ET
Think of this one as a long slow stretch. Neither team has anything to prove tonight. Both starting QBs will see limited snaps. Baltimore is always looking to fine tune its defense early. Look for the Ravens to keep scoring to a minimum. The UNDER has gone 11-4 for them in exhibition play over the past 4 seasons. However, they have gone just 1-3 ATS in each of the last two preseasons, the latest under HC John Harbaugh. As for the Redskins, Clinton Portis figures not to play tonight. Washington was shaky last preseason at 2-3 ATS but are 11-3 as RD of 3 or less points. Second year HC Jim Zorn needs to get this Redskins team off to a good start.
We are selecting... WAS(+3) 1* UNDER(31) 3*
FINAL: Washington 0 - Baltimore 23 [-20] [+8] We were reminded of a very valuable lesson last night...NEVER PUT MONEY ON THE REDSKINS! We stayed UNDER to get the money but the Skins did their best to put that in jeopardy. Jason Campbell...save your career...DEMAND A TRADE because that offensive line is going to get you killed. The Ravens speak for them selves, stout defense, solid running, control the line of scrimmage. We saw impressive QB play from 3rd year Ohio State product Troy Smith (14/30 200-1TD).
Arizona at Pittsburgh (-3, 34), 8:00 PM ET
It's the so-called Superbowl rematch. The Cards are in a bind still with WR Anquan Boldin. QBs Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart should see snaps. Keep in mind that Leinart, just like his college National Championship foe Vince Young, wants his job back. Look for him to press. We see no strong RELIABLE trends for this matchup. We suggest you sit this one out however if you must....
We suggest UNDER (34) 3*
FINAL: Arizona 10 - Pittsburgh 20 [+4]

Dallas at Oakland (-1, 34.5), 10:00 PM ET
We have no idea how the Cowboys intend to replace the 1200 yards and 13TDs a year that T.O. brought to the table. The Cowboys hadn't seen that type of consistent production since the Playmaker himself retired. Now we REALLY get to see who this Romo guy is. No excuses for being a novice - this will be his fourth year as a starter. No girlfriend excuses - Jessica Simpson is gone. And no more distracting, touchdown catching WR to save your ass - Terrell Owens gone. What do the real Cowboys look like? We're about to find out. Nothing to say about Oakland. They speak for themselves.
We suggest UNDER (34.5) 2*
FINAL: Dallas 10 - Oakland 31 [-6.5] Jason Whitten is clearly the Cowboys answer to my question. The TE seems to be how they are going to address the loss of Owen's numbers. I like Jason Whitten, but he's no Shannon Sharpe.